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When good rivers turn bad: Extreme flooding
Case study - The Johnstone River, Far North Queensland

Tangible damages

Rural damages

  • cane farming
  • banana farming
  • beef grazing

Area of rural land flooded

Flood Event
(years ARI)
Total Area Inundated
(ha)
100 10,000
50 9,200
20 7,370
10 6,100
5 5,220
2 3,810

 

Flood Event
(years ARI)
Total Area Inundated
used in Damages Calculation
(ha)
Breakdown of Land use Inundation
Sugar Cane
(D>1.2m)(ha)
Banana
(D>2.5m)(ha)
Beef
(ha)
100 5,950 4,080 410 1,460
50 5,045 3,330 325 1,390
20 3,887 2,365 212 1,310
10 3,058 1,700 148 1,210
5 2,427 1,240 97 1,090
2 1,547 680 27 840

 

  Damages per Landuse ($2002)
Flood Event
(years ARI)
Sugar Cane
($)
Banana
($)
Beef
($)
Total
($)
100 1,003,000 7,790,000 350,000 9,143,000
50 819,000 6,175,000 334,000 7,327,000
20 581,000 4,028,000 314,000 4,924,000
10 418,000 2,812,000 290,000 3,520,000
5 305,000 1,843,000 262,000 2,409,000
2 167,000 513,000 202,000 882,000

 

Flood Event
(years ARI)
Annual Exceedance Probability Existing Case ($2002)
Total Damages Incremental Area Under
Probability-Damage Graph
100 1% $9,143,000  
50 2% $7,327,000 $82,000
20 5% $4,924,000 $184,000
10 10% $3,520,000 $211,000
5 20% $2,409,000 $296,000
2 50% $882,000 $494,000
1 99% $0 $216,000

Average Annual Damage (excl. floods > 100 year ARI)

$1,483,000

Urban damages
(residential, commercial and industrial)

Urban damages in the Johnstone Rivers system are concentrated in the Innisfail region and Mourilyan. However, this analysis also includes damage to residential properties outside of these townships such as smaller communities and farm houses.
The damage to urban areas is principally to property and can be categorised into residential, commercial and industrial sectors.

Flood Event
(years ARI)
Annual Exceedance Probability Existing Case ($2002)
Total Damages Incremental Area Under Probability-Damage Graph
PMF* 0% $210,000,000  
100 1% $83,100,000 $1,460,000
50 2% $44,800,000 $640,000
20 5% $3,800,000 $728,000
10 10% $860,000 $116,000
5 20% $200,000 $53,300
2 50% $6,000 $31,200
1 99% 0 $1,500
Average Annual Damage
$3,030,000

* A PMF (probable maximum flood) was not modeled. The total damages estimate for the PMF was calculated assuming a flood level 2 m higher than the 100 year ARI flood level. Neither the damages estimate now the flood level assumption should be quoted.

Flood Event
(years ARI)
Annual Exceedance Probability Existing Case ($2002)
Commercial Residential
PMF* 0% $150,000,000 $60,000,000
100 1% $65,000,000 $18,000,000
50 2% $35,000,000 $10,000,000
20 5% $2,400,000 $1,400,000
10 10% $585,000 $275,000
5 20% $133,000 $67,000
2 50% $4,500 $1,500
1 99% $0 $0

* A PMF (probable maximum flood) was not modeled. The total damages estimate for the PMF was calculated assuming a flood level 2 m higher than the 100 year ARI flood level. Neither the damages estimate now the flood level assumption should be quoted.

Infrastructure damages

Infrastructure damages includes damages to telephone, electricity, roads, rail, flood structures and other public utilities.

Example road damage

Road

Submergence Damage Saturation Damage

February 1999

Palmerston Highway $15,197  
Innisfail - Japoon Road $118,493  

March 1999

Palmerston Highway $20,539  
Innisfail - Japoon Road $58,897  

February 2000 & March 2000

Palmerston Highway $92,515 $99,952
Innisfail - Japoon Road $104,333  
South Johnstone Road $2,397  

November 2000 & February 2001

Palmerston Highway $4,447  
Innisfail - Japoon Road $34,268  
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1. Origins of extreme weather | 2. Finding hidden treasure | 3. Streams and mass wasting
4. The Johnstone River, FNQ


The resources contained in this unit are courtesy of Earth Science Australia http://earthsci.org/